Thursday, October 15, 2015

Crowder or Turner to start at the 3?


     This years Celtic Preseason with so many new faces leaves one to wonder aloud the Opening Night starting five.

      I have seen written Marcus Smart slated at the Point Guard, Avery Bradley at the Shooting Guard, David Lee at the Power Forward and Tyler Zeller at Center. However, I haven't heard or seen anywhere slated the starter at Small Forward. ESPN's Celtics 2016 Depth Chart has Jae Crodwer as the starter and Evan Turner as the backup to the 3. Even Coach Stevens has alluded,  "There might be two options at one spot that we'll have to figure out as they compete against each other in practice." as read in a Fox Sports column. Could that one spot be the 3? Who will it be?

     I think it should be Evan Turner.

     I explained in another blogpost that I see Jae on the second team. Part of the reason for that is I expect the second team for the Celtics to be High-Energy and High-Octane. I see that motor apparent in Crowders' game. I also believe Jae compliments Isaiah's game. I tend to think Evan is more methodical, graceful and relies more on his skill set. Also, one of Turner's strengths is creating a shot and getting to the basket. This would take away from Thomas's effectiveness if the duo were paired in the backcourt.

    Last year, Evan proved to be a valuable and versatile player playing point when needed. This would allow Marcus to share time bringing the ball up but also at times to play off the ball and allow him to maybe conserve some energy for the defensive end.

     People may argue that Salary often dictates who should start. Crowder will make 6 Million in the first year of a five year/$35,000,000 guaranteed contract and Turner the Mid Level Exception at 3.4 Million. However, do people remember that Evan Turner was the #2 overall pick in the 2010 draft behind John Wall? A team doesn't use a #2 overall pick on a bench guy.

     Comparing the two, the results were amazingly similar. So for that I went digging into two advanced stats:

  • PER (Player Efficiency Rating- A Measure of per minute production) is virtually identical.
  • WS (Win Shares - An estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player) goes to Evan but not by much.
     Bottom Line: Although similar in many categories, I believe Turner's style and skill set is more complimentary to the other starters.

   

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